Denver in Top 5 Housing Markets That Will Recover First

We’re feeling the recovery every day around here – downtown, in NW Denver, and even in Golden, Arvada, and Wheatridge, among other Metro areas.  Low inventory, low prices, low rates and rising demand are all helping to jump-start movement in D-town, and it’s even starting to feel like FLIPPING will pay off big time if done right!

Check out this article from BUILDER magazine:

John Burns always seems to be step ahead of the pack when it comes to forecasting the housing market, especially local demand. Among the first analysts to write that a major price correction was necessary before the market would rebound, Burns has since developed a local market forecasting tool.

Dubbed Housing Cycle GPA, the analytical model considers 29 years of history to determine a local market’s health. The primary drivers are local demand, supply, and affordability, along with what’s happening in the national economy. When two of the three local fundamentals rise, that usually means price appreciation is likely to occur, sometimes immediately, in other cases, over several years.

We asked the analysts at John Burns Associates to use the model to determine which five major home building markets might recover first. They produced a list that includes some metro areas with strong job formation, others where home builder competition is almost nil, and still others where price declines have made homes quite affordable.

1.

Washington, DC. Burns’ bullishness on this market boils down to a single word—jobs. “If a sector will be hiring, it will be the Federal government,” he says. D.C. was also among the first markets to have a price correction. “Within a reasonable commute of the Capitol, homes have become very affordable and supply is constrained.”

2.San Diego, Calif. “Most of the home builders and speculators have left town, and left a very supply-constrained market behind. The biotechnology sector is likely to lead an economic recovery that will be characterized by great affordability (by San Diego standards) and a lack of supply.”

3.Sacramento, Calif. “Although we expect housing demand in Sacramento to remain low due to state fiscal issues, much of the excess supply in both new and resale homes has been cleared out, and affordability is fantastic.”

4. Dallas, Texas. “Assuming mortgage rates remain low and GSE lending doesn’t change, Dallas’ housing market should stabilize due to increased demand from people relocating from the west to one of the most affordable markets in the country. North Dallas should recover long before South Dallas.”

5. Denver, Colo. “One of the best places to live in the country, Denver was just recovering from the telecom bust when it got hit by the national economic downturn as well. Housing is extremely affordable and foreclosure activity, which used to lead the country, is now much lower than most other areas of the country.”

Read the rest of the article.